GmbH · KönigsteinUpdate meeting with the Department of Meteorological Services and UNDP · document outline, key elements, costing & financing
GmbH · KönigsteinFive parts, 13 chapters, ICTU-compliant. Accompanied by ICTU annex v2, technical annex v2 and a draft implementation plan.
Reconciled to the preliminary 2022 National Inventory. BAU, unconditional and conditional scenarios; all reductions linked to quantified measures.
Costing & Financing Framework v1 plus a 7-sheet workbook. Next step: institution-by-institution validation of quantities, unit costs and conditionality.
GmbH · KönigsteinSocio-economic profile, 2022 GHG inventory, vulnerability, institutions, Global Stocktake alignment
Reference year, scope, methodology, progression beyond NDC 2.0, planning process, BAU scenario
Energy & transport, agriculture & land use, IPPU, waste, mitigation synthesis with target architecture
16 sections: water, agriculture, livestock, health, DRR, ecosystems, mobility, GESI, loss & damage, MRV
Finance, Article 6 & carbon markets, MRV, technology, capacity and just transition
Companion documents: ICTU annex v2 · Technical annex v2 · Implementation plan (draft, leads and timing TBD with DMS)
GmbH · KönigsteinTarget year, with a 2030 interim figure, per Decision 1/CMA.5
2022 inventory base (CO2e, excl-LULUCF, preliminary NID, AR5 GWP)
Quantified and costed mitigation measures, M01 to M34
Of the contribution tied to specific, costed measures in the model
Energy, IPPU, agriculture and waste in the headline target. LULUCF reported separately as a removals pillar (net sink of about minus 2.8 MtCO2e, BUR1/TNC basis).
AR5 global warming potentials, consistent with the 2022 National Inventory and the Enhanced Transparency Framework.
First Botswana NDC with a dedicated GST section and a quantified progression assessment against the Second NDC.
GmbH · KönigsteinGross emissions excl-LULUCF, MtCO2e. Anchor values per NDC 3.0 submission draft v8; trajectories between anchor years are illustrative. Source: Botswana NDC 3.0 model.
BAU 2035 (MtCO2e): modelled business-as-usual trajectory anchored to the preliminary 2022 inventory
Unconditional 2035 (15.65 Mt): 8 measures financed from domestic resources
Conditional 2035 (10.80 Mt): contingent on international finance, technology and capacity; 2030 interim: -24.9%
GmbH · Königstein| Cycle | Headline target | GST response |
|---|---|---|
| NDC 1.0 (2016) | 15% below BAU by 2030 | n/a |
| NDC 2.0 (2024) | 15% below BAU: unchanged | Field marked "N/A" |
| NDC 3.0 (2026) | 32.9% below BAU by 2035, absolute targets | Dedicated GST section |
In absolute terms, the conditional 2035 level of 10.80 MtCO2e is well below NDC 2.0's implied 2030 level of approximately 19.3 MtCO2e; progression holds under Article 4.3 in absolute terms.
Between NDC 1.0 and NDC 2.0 without an increase in the headline mitigation target.
Target horizon per Decision 1/CMA.5; net-zero year set to 2050 in the draft, subject to DMS endorsement.
Botswana NDC built on an end-to-end national model reconciled to the 2022 inventory.
GmbH · KönigsteinEmission reduction in 2035, MtCO2e, per measure. Colour: green = energy, cyan = transport, orange = AFOLU. Source: NDC 3.0 model, measures M01-M34.
Total conditional reduction in 2035, sum of the quantified measure portfolio.
Measures across energy, transport, AFOLU, waste and IPPU; 8 unconditional, 26 conditional.
LULUCF net sink, reported as a separate removals pillar (REDD+, fire management, tree planting) outside the headline target.
GmbH · KönigsteinEight priority sectors from water security to health and climate mobility, with quantified indicators, GESI integration and an ambition roadmap. Builds on the NDC 2.0 USD 2.5 bn adaptation programme.
Article 6.2 / 6.4 allocation logic with whitelist-redlist screening. Whitelisted activities are excluded from the unconditional target to avoid double counting.
MRV arrangements for ETF and BTR reporting, technology and capacity needs, and a just transition framing for the coal-dependent power sector.
GmbH · KönigsteinTotal investment cost, USD, constant 2025; low-high range 1.30 to 2.59 bn
Average annual investment over the ten-year implementation period
Cumulative abatement to 2035, headline target plus removals pillar
USD per tCO2e, blended cost-effectiveness (TIC mid / cumulative abatement)
Eight domestically financed measures: streetlights, building retrofits, cookstoves, vehicle efficiency, fire management, landfill gas, composting.
26 measures contingent on international climate finance, technology transfer and capacity building.
The conditional ask is USD 0.93 bn below the NDC 2.0 conditional-mitigation envelope of USD 2.7 bn.
Model v9 recalculation (10 Jun 2026) yields conditional -33.4% / unconditional -2.8%; consistency pass with submission v8 figures pending. Adaptation costing is additional (workbook sheet 5).
GmbH · Königstein| Sector | Uncond. (USD M) | Cond. (USD M) | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | 21.5 | 1 332.7 | 1 354.2 | 73.2% |
| Transport | 2.0 | 252.0 | 254.0 | 13.7% |
| AFOLU | 15.0 | 148.0 | 163.0 | 8.8% |
| Waste | 40.0 | 35.0 | 75.0 | 4.1% |
| IPPU | 0.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.3% |
| TOTAL | 78.5 | 1 772.7 | 1 851.2 | 100% |
Costing method: quantity × unit cost per measure, lo/mid/hi, from IRENA 2024, GCF FP158, ESMAP and Botswana procurement data (Mmadinare solar ~USD 750 k/MW). MegaSolar (USD 700 M mid) is the largest single line.
Total investment cost by sector, unconditional plus conditional. Source: Costing & Financing Framework v1, model v9 sheets 13A-13D.
GmbH · Königstein| Source | Instruments | Best fit | Status / entry point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic budget / SOEs | Budget lines, BPC capex, tariffs | 8 unconditional measures | MoF green budget unit · NDP 12 |
| GCF | Grants, concessional loans, PPF | MegaSolar, PV+battery, adaptation | Concept note in preparation; via UNDP / CI / FAO / WB |
| Adaptation Fund | Grants | Adaptation priorities | USD 8.34 M cleared Sep 2025 |
| GEF | Grants | Enabling, AFOLU, waste | GEF-8 STAR allocation |
| MDBs (AfDB, World Bank) | Sovereign loans, guarantees | Grid, BRT, waste infrastructure | Country partnership frameworks |
| Bilateral (GIZ, AFD, EU) | TA grants, co-finance | Vehicle MEPS, green cooling, MRV | CooPSA green cooling pilot (GIZ) |
| Article 6 (6.2 / 6.4) | ITMO revenue, advance purchase | Whitelist: IFM, cooling, cement | Framework under development (Pengwern / WB) |
Conditionality is assigned by financing strategy: unconditional = public budget, SOE capex, tariff measures, domestic capital markets. Whitelisted Article 6 measures move out of the unconditional target.
GmbH · KönigsteinMitigation, adaptation and enabling / MRV totals, each split unconditional vs conditional.
Sector investment tables in the NDC 2.0 format used by ministries and reviewers.
Pipeline annex with readiness stages, identifying project-preparation funding needs.
Instruments, partners and the domestic reforms that enable investment, per measure.
GmbH · KönigsteinTenders, IPP PPAs, GCF FP158 project data
Pre-validate the energy block (73% of cost)
Energy / transport · AFOLU · waste / IPPU · finance
Each conditional measure assigned a named source; residual gap near zero
Measures converted into projects with readiness stages and preparation-funding needs
Eight sectors, 2-3 priority actions each, with DMS and the adaptation expert
Four-layer finance chapter drafted from validated figures
GmbH · Königstein| Open decision | Effect on the NDC |
|---|---|
| Cattle herd target | Include 5 M by 2030 in BAU, or keep flat NID herd: large effect on agriculture emissions |
| Revised IRP 2025 | 50% RE by 2030 in BAU or conditional: moves the headline percentage |
| BAU reference | NDC 14.1 Mt (2030) vs LTS ~22 Mt: which is official, whether to reconcile |
| LULUCF sink | Keep -2.8 Mt (BUR1/TNC) or adopt NID Final -73.6 Mt |
| Morupule B | Full base-load (IRP / NDP 12) or peaking only (current NDC text) |
| EV ambition | Keep 10% / 25% (2030 / 2035) or raise toward the LTS 50% by 2036 |
Applied in draft v8, for DMS endorsement: net-zero 2050, wind at 100 MW per IRP, EV 10% / 25%, geothermal and green hydrogen narrative, Youth Climate Fund.
Implementation plan: leads, steps, timing and reporting frequency per measure to be confirmed by DMS and responsible ministries.
Sector validation workshops and MoF / MMGE pre-meetings for the costing and financing package.